Recent polling and campaign dynamics have kept United Serbia's projected vote share tightly contested in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s percent range ahead of the October 25 parliamentary vote. The list, led by Aleksandar Vučić after his presidential resignation, faces a surge from the student movement list that grew out of prolonged protests following the 2024 Novi Sad canopy collapse. Proportional representation with a 3 percent threshold and high polarization amplify small shifts in turnout or late-deciding voters. Factors such as reported disparities in campaign resources, administrative spending measures, and opposition consolidation could widen or narrow the gap depending on final mobilization in the remaining days.