Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 0.6% month-over-month rise in September U.S. CPI, followed closely by 0.5%, reflecting consensus forecasts that elevated gasoline prices will lift the headline figure after August’s 0.4% gain while core measures moderate. Recent data show shelter costs easing further to 4.6% year-over-year, supporting softer core readings near 0.2% month-over-month, even as energy components add upward pressure to the all-items index. Market-implied odds price in this mixed picture ahead of the October 14–15 release, with the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting underscoring sensitivity to whether the print confirms a continued disinflation trend or signals renewed energy-driven upside.