The Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapon restrictions in Illinois and Connecticut has driven trader expectations that the bans will fall. Oral arguments are set for December 2, and the conservative majority has repeatedly signaled that AR-15-style rifles qualify as arms in common use under Heller and Bruen precedents, a view reinforced by the Trump administration’s September amicus brief urging invalidation. With four justices already on record favoring review and two more viewed as likely allies, markets price a strong probability of a ruling that removes these state and local prohibitions. A decision is expected by summer 2027, though outcomes could shift if the Court narrows the question or if new facts emerge during briefing.