**Recent circuit splits between the Third and Ninth Circuits over whether sports-event contracts on CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act or remain subject to state gambling laws have prompted multiple certiorari petitions, most notably New Jersey’s September 2026 filing in Flaherty v. KalshiEX.** Amicus briefs from the NFL (October 8), nearly 40 state attorneys general, and gaming regulators associations have highlighted regulatory uncertainty and urged review to resolve the conflict. Kalshi’s response to the lead petition is due November 9, after which the Court could act as early as December. No prediction-market cases appeared on the Court’s initial October 2026 docket, and observers note that even a grant this term would likely produce argument and decision in 2027 or later. These filings and the narrow procedural posture of the cases currently shape trader assessments of the probability that certiorari will be granted by year-end.