The Senate’s repeated failure to advance the SAVE Act despite multiple House approvals, including a 218-213 vote in February 2026, underpins trader consensus against enactment this year. Key defeats include a June 4 Senate amendment vote of 48-50 and unsuccessful efforts to attach the measure to must-pass spending or defense bills, reflecting the need for 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and opposition from several Republican senators alongside unified Democratic resistance. With midterms on November 3 and limited remaining legislative time, the bill remains stalled under Senate leadership. Late-session maneuvers in a lame-duck period or shifts in chamber control could still create narrow pathways before year-end, though procedural and vote-count barriers make such outcomes unlikely based on current dynamics.