Recent escalation in Yemen, including Houthi strikes on Saudi airports that killed civilians in early October 2026, has prompted Riyadh to reject any ceasefire until the Saudi-backed Yemeni government regains territory lost in recent offensives. Saudi and Omani delegations held direct talks in Sanaa over the weekend on a draft peace framework covering extended UN truce terms, port access, and revenue sharing, yet Saudi officials signaled no agreement until military conditions shift. Iran’s foreign minister offered mediation in calls with his Saudi counterpart on October 11, citing risks of broader regional escalation, while the UN Security Council urged intensified negotiations for a durable ceasefire. These developments frame trader assessments of announcement timing amid competing military and diplomatic pressures.