**Vance maintains a commanding lead in early 2028 GOP nomination polling and prediction markets, with recent surveys placing him at 38-39% support compared to Rubio’s 17-26%.** Rubio, serving as Secretary of State, has stated he has no current plans to run and is focused on his duties, while reports indicate he views Vance as the frontrunner and intends to support him. The compressed timeline to October 31 leaves little room for polling shifts or announcements, as attention remains on the 2026 midterms rather than primary positioning. Rubio’s reported willingness to back Vance further reduces the likelihood of an immediate reversal. A sudden major development—such as an unexpected announcement, health event, or Trump intervention—could theoretically alter dynamics, though no such catalysts have emerged.