Rocket Lab’s recent official update on October 14, 2026, citing a manufacturing defect—voids in the carbon-composite forward propellant dome of the first-stage tank—shifted Neutron’s debut firmly into 2027, driving the 97% market-implied probability against a launch by year-end. This follows repeated prior slips from the original 2024 target and reflects the company’s emphasis on rigorous qualification testing, including hydrostatic and cryo campaigns, rather than accelerating amid unresolved composite production issues. With only weeks remaining and first-stage assembly plus full vehicle integration still ahead, traders see negligible chance of meeting the deadline. Slim upside risks include unexpectedly rapid dome replacement, inspection, and regulatory approvals, though CEO statements indicate a new target date will not be set until early 2027 at the earliest.