Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) leads the Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial race at 83.5% implied probability after advancing from the October 4 first round alongside Cadu de Lula (PT) at 15.5%. Official tallies showed Allyson narrowly ahead with 36.69% of valid votes to Cadu's 36.31%, while Álvaro Dias (PL) placed third at roughly 26.8% and failed to advance. Pre-first-round surveys from Quaest and others had Allyson pulling ahead in the final weeks, with runoff simulations frequently favoring him by double-digit margins. The October 25 second round will decide the outcome, with trader consensus reflecting Allyson's stronger statewide organization and recent polling trends over Cadu's narrower base. Minor candidates remain below 1% each.