Recent judicial rulings have shifted the outlook for the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race. After the October 4 first-round vote, in which Douglas Ruas (PL) led with 49.27% of valid ballots and Eduardo Paes (PSD) held 42.76%, the TSE annulled Anthony Garotinho’s 3.17% share on October 8 due to an earlier candidacy ruling. Retotalization by the TRE-RJ on October 10 raised Ruas to 50.88%, securing a first-round win and eliminating the scheduled October 25 runoff. Paes publicly accepted the outcome and withdrew related appeals. Traders have priced this development into elevated “Other” odds, reflecting the substantial probability that no second-round margin materializes, while narrower Ruas-win buckets capture residual scenarios in which the runoff still occurs. Formal proclamation is set for October 15, leaving limited time for further procedural shifts.