Democrat Helena Foulkes holds a narrow lead over independent Ken Block in the latest Emerson College/WPRI poll of likely voters, at 44% to 35% with Republican Aaron Guckian at 10% and 9% undecided. Block has cut Foulkes’ earlier advantage in half since August through stronger independent and older-voter support, while Guckian’s low name recognition and fundraising limit his ability to consolidate Republican-leaning votes. Early voting has begun ahead of the November 3 general election, and undecided voters appear to split in ways that keep the final margin fluid. Traders reflect this uncertainty through balanced pricing on Person A versus Other outcomes and concentration around modest Democratic victory ranges, with late shifts in turnout or Guckian’s standing among the main variables that could widen or close the gap.