Morena holds a commanding lead in recent polls for Quintana Roo's 2027 state elections, including party preference measures showing it ahead of PAN, Movimiento Ciudadano, and PRI by double-digit margins, with combined support alongside PT and PVEM often exceeding 45%. High approval ratings for the incumbent Morena governor and strong performance by the party's federal alliance in the state during 2026 contests reinforce expectations of continued dominance in the local congress. The opposition remains fragmented, with limited evidence of unified coalitions or shifts that would alter the balance before the June 2027 vote for the 25 seats. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns Morena the highest implied probability while keeping smaller parties at single-digit levels.