PAN maintains a modest edge in trader pricing for the Querétaro state congress outcome, consistent with its stronger polling position in the state ahead of the 2027 elections. Recent surveys show the party leading Morena by double digits in overall preference, supported by its historical dominance in the Bajío region and ongoing internal coordination around candidates such as Felifer Macías for governor and Luis Nava for legislative strategy. The contest remains competitive due to Morena’s prior gains in the state legislature during the 2024 cycle, the possibility of opposition coalitions, and undecided voters near 10 percent in multiple polls. Upcoming candidate formalizations and alliance negotiations through late 2026 could shift seat projections and widen or narrow the implied probabilities reflected in current market consensus.