The October 5, 2026 Quebec provincial election produced a fragmented result that positioned the Parti Québécois to form a minority government with 59 of 127 seats. This placed the party 19 seats ahead of the Liberals on 40 seats, aligning with the leading market outcomes on seat margin. A split in the popular vote—PQ at 28 percent, Liberals at 24 percent, Conservatives at 21 percent, and the CAQ at 13 percent—combined with first-past-the-post dynamics enabled the PQ to secure the largest caucus despite falling five seats short of a majority. The CAQ’s complete wipeout and the Conservatives’ gains further shaped the seat distribution, with final counts and any recounts determining precise margins. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed tallies and the limited likelihood of larger or smaller differentials.