**PQ secured a minority government with 59 seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec election, finishing 19 seats ahead of the Liberals on 40 seats, consistent with the leading market outcome for a 10-19 seat margin.** This result stemmed from vote splitting among five main parties, allowing the PQ to translate 28% of the popular vote into the most seats under first-past-the-post rules. The Coalition Avenir Québec was eliminated from the legislature, while the Conservatives took 19 seats and Québec solidaire won 9. Final counts confirmed no party reached the 64-seat majority threshold, positioning the PQ to govern with support from other parties on key legislation. Trader consensus on the narrow margin range aligns with these verified seat totals and the absence of recounts altering the 19-seat gap.