Morena holds the strongest position ahead of Puebla’s 2027 state congress elections due to its current majority in the LXII Legislature and confirmed alliances with PT, PVEM, Nueva Alianza, and Fuerza por México for both federal and local races. Recent internal candidate registrations by multiple Morena deputies for federal seats and municipal presidencies reflect the party’s organizational momentum without disrupting legislative activity. Opposition parties such as PAN, MC, PRI, and PT trail significantly in implied probabilities, consistent with weaker recent showings and limited coalition activity. Traders appear to price in Morena’s incumbency advantage and alliance stability as the dominant factors shaping control of the 41-seat congress.