Buffalo Bills hold a narrow 3-1 edge over the 3-2 New England Patriots in the early AFC East standings, with the Jets at 2-3 and Dolphins winless at 0-5. The Bills' combination of offensive firepower led by Josh Allen and a favorable remaining schedule underpins their 59.5% implied probability, despite a Week 4 loss to New England. The Patriots have closed the gap through Drake Maye's recent five-touchdown performance in a 45-17 rout of the Raiders and strong defensive showings, supporting their 37.5% share as defending division champions. The Jets and Dolphins trail significantly due to inconsistent results and weaker records, limiting their division-title prospects to low single digits.