Buffalo holds the AFC East lead at 3-1 through early October, driven by Josh Allen's continued efficiency and the team's top scoring offense, while the Patriots sit at 3-2 after a decisive recent victory. New England's improved supporting cast around Drake Maye has kept them within striking distance in trader pricing, but Buffalo's head-to-head edge and overall record reinforce the consensus split. The Jets and Dolphins remain long shots after slow starts, with Miami's 0-5 mark highlighting ongoing roster and performance challenges that limit realistic contention paths. These dynamics reflect the wisdom of crowds in current implied probabilities.