Manchester City’s 26% implied probability to finish last stems primarily from the Premier League’s recent guilty verdict on 114 financial rule breaches, with an appeal pending and sanctions—including potential heavy points deductions—expected in early 2027. This overhang contrasts with City’s perfect six-win start atop the table. Among the promoted sides, Coventry City (22%), Hull City (15.5%), and Ipswich Town (13.5%) carry elevated risk after mixed early results typical of newly arrived clubs. Fulham, Tottenham, Bournemouth, and Sunderland sit in the bottom four with two to four points from six matches, reflecting winless or low-scoring campaigns that keep the bottom of the table bunched. With 32 fixtures remaining, current form, fixture difficulty, and any confirmed disciplinary outcome will determine whether the race stays this compressed.