**Trader consensus on a 92.5% probability of no additional U.S. plague case by December 31 aligns with CDC surveillance showing just two confirmed human cases of Yersinia pestis infection in 2026 to date—one recovered case in Apache County, Arizona in April and a fatal case in Santa Fe County, New Mexico in June.** These sporadic infections fit the typical annual range of zero to 17 cases, concentrated in the rural Southwest where the bacterium circulates among rodents and fleas. Transmission peaks from late spring through early fall with flea activity; colder winter conditions sharply reduce risk. With the season winding down and no new reports since June, the market-implied odds reflect strong evidence from official notifiable disease data. A late-season or imported case remains possible but would represent a significant departure from established patterns.