**Trader consensus heavily favors no additional plague cases in the US by December 31, 2026, at 91.5% implied probability.** CDC provisional data through early October show only two confirmed human cases in 2026—an April bubonic case in Apache County, Arizona (recovered) and a June fatal case in Santa Fe County, New Mexico—well below the recent annual average of five to seven. Plague, caused by the bacterium *Yersinia pestis* and transmitted primarily via fleas from infected rodents in the southwestern endemic foci, exhibits strong seasonality with the vast majority of cases occurring from late spring through early fall. With winter months approaching, transmission risk drops sharply. Historical patterns confirm sporadic, isolated occurrences rather than sustained chains, and no unusual animal die-offs or clusters have been reported recently. While a late-season or travel-related case remains possible, such events are historically rare outside peak months.