Traders assign a 97.2% probability to “No” on Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end primarily because no criminal charges have been filed in the cookie-stuffing allegations surrounding her AI-powered shopping platform Phia. Bloomberg reporting from July and August 2026 detailed how the browser extension automatically injected affiliate tracking cookies, enabling improper commission claims on purchases it did not drive, with internal Slack messages indicating founder awareness since December 2025. Despite the practice’s potential resemblance to federal wire fraud, legal analysts emphasize civil penalties, restitution, and platform bans over prosecution, especially absent any DOJ enforcement signals months after the story broke. The short remaining window to December 31 further reduces the likelihood of sudden regulatory intervention or indictment.