Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Southern Giants Brigades, reported recapturing Perim Island and areas around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on October 9, 2026, during clashes near Dhubab that resulted in Houthi fighter captures and ongoing airstrikes under Operation Dawn of Yemen. The Houthis had seized the island in mid-September amid a rapid coastal offensive that also took Mocha, extending their hold over Red Sea chokepoints previously used by government-aligned monitors. Trader consensus prices reflect ongoing uncertainty about whether these gains will hold through year-end, factoring in Houthi naval reinforcements, missile activity, and the broader military balance between Sanaa-backed forces and the internationally recognized government. Scheduled operations and potential diplomatic pressures in the coming weeks could influence the outcome.