Trader consensus on peak severe drought severity in Minas Gerais during the coffee growing season reflects uncertainty from a strengthening El Niño event projected to peak in October–December 2026. This pattern typically suppresses rainfall in Southeast Brazil while elevating temperatures, potentially stressing soil moisture during the critical September–November flowering and early fruit-set window for the 2027/28 arabica crop. Recent observations show above-average precipitation in Minas Gerais through early October, supporting flowering in some areas, yet Inmet forecasts indicate below-normal, irregularly distributed rains and heat anomalies exceeding 2°C. These variables, alongside low-humidity alerts across hundreds of municipalities, create closely matched probabilities across drought bins as models diverge on duration and intensity of any dry spell.