Recent above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, including 141 mm from May to July versus historical norms below 50 mm, has eased soil moisture deficits and supported coffee flowering for the 2027 crop, lowering near-term severe drought odds. However, a strengthening El Niño event—projected at very strong intensity with 95% likelihood through year-end—introduces uncertainty via potential shifts in precipitation patterns and elevated evapotranspiration during critical October-November fruit set. Official monitoring from INMET and Epamig shows mixed regional humidity alerts alongside favorable recent showers, creating genuine divergence among traders on peak drought severity thresholds. Updated seasonal forecasts will clarify resolution risks.