Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability against OpenAI formally announcing AGI achievement before 2027 because the September 2026 GPT-6 Astra launch produced benchmark gains and “AGI era” rhetoric from president Greg Brockman without meeting the company’s charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman described progress as “not quite yet” internally, while the ARC Prize Foundation and independent researchers noted that even strong scores on ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath do not constitute proof under standard evaluation. Recent October math-result releases have sustained capability discussion but triggered no official declaration, leaving resolution dependent on verifiable future announcements rather than executive commentary.