OpenAI’s measured approach to labeling its frontier systems as AGI continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 86.5% “No” odds. Despite the September 2026 release of GPT-6 Astra—hailed by president Greg Brockman as a “generational leap” and the start of the AGI era—leadership has stopped short of an official declaration, citing ongoing work on alignment, recursive self-improvement, and safety benchmarks. Recent model rollouts, including GPT-6 Sol variants and internal AI-generated mathematical proofs, demonstrate rapid capability gains in coding, computer use, and scientific discovery, yet OpenAI emphasizes these as steps toward rather than confirmation of AGI under its own definition. With roughly 14 months left before 2027 and no confirmed announcement timeline, traders view a formal declaration this year as unlikely absent a major strategic shift.