**Incumbent Republican Mike Carey and Democratic challenger Don Leonard remain closely matched in Ohio’s 15th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election.** The R+4 Cook PVI seat, redrawn in 2025, has produced a tight contest, with a late-September Democratic poll showing Leonard at 46% to Carey’s 45%. Trader pricing reflects this balance through equal 50% shares on the top two candidates alongside split probabilities across narrow Republican and Democratic margin buckets. Key factors sustaining the tightness include the district’s suburban Columbus and central Ohio composition, limited public polling, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in generic ballot measures. Low third-party impact from the Libertarian candidate and strong incumbent fundraising have not yet produced separation. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout among suburban voters, or national economic or campaign events could widen margins before Election Day.