Incumbent Democrat Emilia Sykes faces Republican Carey Coleman in Ohio’s 13th district on November 3, 2026, with an independent also on the ballot. The seat’s boundaries were redrawn in 2025 to strengthen the Democratic tilt after Sykes held on by under three points in 2024, prompting stronger GOP contenders to exit and leaving Coleman as the nominee following a May primary. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, yet the even PVI and suburban Northeast Ohio electorate sustain tight implied margins in prediction markets. Limited national polling, modest campaign visibility, and midterm turnout patterns among independents and working-class voters in Summit County keep probabilities clustered around single-digit to low-teen Democratic edges. Late-cycle endorsements, ad spending surges, or turnout shifts in Akron-area precincts could widen separation before Election Day.