The 2026 Quebec general election on October 5 produced a Parti Québécois minority government with 59 seats, leaving the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) as official opposition with 40 seats on 24.2% of the vote. This outcome aligned with final polling averages that showed the PLQ competitive for second place behind the PQ while benefiting from efficient vote distribution in Montreal ridings and among non-francophone voters. The Parti conservateur du Québec captured 19 seats and official party status, further fragmenting the vote and limiting gains for both the CAQ and Québec solidaire. Official results from Élections Québec placed the PLQ firmly in the 40-43 seat band, consistent with pre-election seat projections that had converged around 36-40 seats for the party. Trader consensus on these ranges reflects the settled results and the absence of pending recounts or disputes that would alter the count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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