The market is dominated by Morena at 66%, with the opposition parties (PRI at 34.5% and the smaller PVEM, PAN, PT, MC) trailing far behind. This positioning reflects Morena’s entrenched control of the Oaxaca state legislature, where the party and its allies currently hold roughly 81% of the seats. Recent official data from INEGI confirm that 66.7% of sitting local deputies are Morena members, and the party swept the 2024 state congressional elections—gaining 21 of 25 majority-relative districts outright. With no scheduled mid-term contests or major defections reported in the past 30 days, traders see little immediate risk of Morena losing its majority before the next ordinary election cycle.