Recent polling averages place the National Party at around 28-29% party vote in the lead-up to the November 7 election, translating under current MMP projections to roughly 34-37 seats depending on electorate outcomes and overhang effects. The race remains tight because National and Labour are essentially level, minor parties such as the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and Opportunity hover near or above the 5% threshold, and National has ruled out cooperation with Opportunity. These variables create wide ranges in simulated seat totals for the right bloc. Late shifts in minor-party support, final-week polling movements, or strong electorate performances by any party could push National’s total above or below the 35-seat mark before election night.