The open-seat contest in New York’s 21st Congressional District, a historically Republican-leaning North Country area long held by Elise Stefanik, has produced trader consensus favoring Republican Anthony Constantino at 72.5% over Democrat Blake Gendebien at 27.5%. Constantino secured the GOP nomination after a competitive primary and has deployed substantial self-funding alongside strong name recognition from his business background. Gendebien, a dairy farmer, won his primary more comfortably but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report. A late September Siena poll showed Gendebien ahead 46-42% with an independent also on the ballot, tightening the race within the margin of error, yet earlier surveys and the district’s partisan baseline continue to anchor higher implied probabilities for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.