Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 10th congressional district by defeating incumbent Daniel Goldman 66% to 34% in the June 2026 primary, positioning the former city comptroller as the clear favorite in the November general election against Republican Jennifer Moore. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 partisan voter index and consistent “solid Democratic” or “safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around sizable Democratic margins. With early voting underway and no major campaign developments or polling shifts in the past month, the race has remained stable, limiting volatility in margin probabilities while reinforcing expectations of a comfortable victory for the Democratic nominee.