Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen seeks a second term in New York's 4th congressional district, a Nassau County swing seat on Long Island's South Shore that she flipped in 2024 by a narrow margin. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, who won her primary decisively, benefits from Trump endorsement and local focus on property taxes and affordability, while Gillen emphasizes incumbency and moderation. Trader pricing on the margin of victory remains tightly clustered around double-digit Democratic edges because of balanced party registration, suburban voter volatility, and limited public polling, with few recent catalysts to shift expectations. Key upcoming factors include early voting turnout, independent voter preferences, and any late campaign spending or national headwinds that could widen or narrow the gap before November 3.