The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election for the Lithuanian Seimas, set for 8 November with a possible runoff on 22 November, follows the sudden death of incumbent Liberal Movement MP Jevgenij Šuklin. Trader consensus shows a fragmented field, with Gintautas Kindurys (LVŽS) holding a narrow lead near 49% implied probability amid a crowded slate that includes Vladislav Kondratovič (LSDP), Ignotas Adomavičius (Nemuno aušra), Dalia Štraupaitė, and others. The race remains tight due to the constituency’s recent competitive history—where LVŽS and Liberals split first-round support in 2024—and the absence of dominant polling or endorsements that would consolidate preferences. Upcoming candidate debates and any late shifts in regional turnout or party coordination could widen gaps before first-round voting.