The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election for Lithuania’s Seimas, set for November 8 with a possible runoff, follows the death of incumbent Liberal Movement MP Jevgenij Šuklin and features eleven registered candidates from parties including the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, Social Democrats, Dawn of Nemunas, and others. Trader consensus shows Gintautas Kindurys, a former MP with local roots and LVŽS backing, holding the narrowest lead amid broad fragmentation that echoes the constituency’s mixed 2024 results and historical LVŽS strength. Vladislav Kondratovič, Ignotas Adomavičius, Dalia Štraupaitė, and Antanas Šakalis trail closely, reflecting dispersed support across ideological lines and limited late-cycle polling or endorsements to consolidate preferences. Upcoming campaign events and turnout patterns in this single-member seat could still shift implied probabilities before voting.