**APC holds a commanding position in the Nigerian House of Representatives election market at 76.5% implied probability, driven by its strengthened legislative majority ahead of the February 2027 polls.** A sustained wave of defections since mid-2024 has shifted over 119 opposition seats to the ruling party, giving APC roughly 272 seats in the current assembly and expanding its control across both chambers of the National Assembly. The party has also fielded the largest slate of candidates for the 360 House seats, while opposition groups including the PDP, LP, ADC, and NDC remain fragmented by internal leadership disputes and further losses. These structural advantages in incumbency, state-level machinery, and candidate organization underpin trader consensus, even as presidential polling shows more competitive dynamics and voter sentiment remains sensitive to turnout and regional mobilization.