The All Progressives Congress (APC) holds a commanding position in the race for the most seats in Nigeria’s 360-member House of Representatives ahead of the January 16, 2027, National Assembly elections. This stems from its control of 31 state governorships, a large existing caucus bolstered by ongoing defections from opposition ranks, and a full slate of 360 candidates on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s final list. In contrast, major rivals including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) face internal leadership disputes, court rulings disrupting structures, and significantly fewer candidates or resources. Trader consensus at 76.5% for the APC reflects these institutional and organizational asymmetries, while lower probabilities for opposition parties align with their fragmented coalitions and limited state-level footholds. Scheduled primaries and any late defections remain potential variables before voting.