The September 2026 Swedish general election delivered a narrow parliamentary majority of 176 seats to the centre-left bloc led by Social Democrats, compared with 173 for the incumbent right-wing Tidö alliance. This result prompted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to resign and shifted the speaker's mandate to Magdalena Andersson to explore government formation. Traders assign her the highest implied probability due to her party's status as the largest in the winning bloc and her role in active coalition talks with the Left, Centre, and Green parties, despite sticking points over ministerial posts and policy alignment. Kristersson's lower standing reflects his bloc's defeat, while minor-party leaders trail with limited paths to the premiership absent major shifts in parliamentary support or renewed negotiations. Resolution depends on a successful Riksdag vote confirming a prime minister.