Janez Janša secured parliamentary approval as prime minister on May 22 with a 51-36 vote, forming a right-wing coalition of his Slovenian Democratic Party with Christian democratic and centre-right partners after March parliamentary elections produced no outright majority. Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement, despite finishing first, failed to assemble a centre-left government, opening the path for Janša’s fourth term. Trader consensus at near-certainty reflects this confirmed outcome and the absence of viable alternatives in the current assembly. Scenarios that could still shift the position include failure to confirm the full cabinet in the coming weeks, unexpected coalition defections, or major legal or health developments affecting Janša before the next scheduled elections.