Giorgia Meloni maintains a clear lead in trader pricing for Italy’s next prime minister due to her party’s consistent polling advantage and the center-right coalition’s position near the 42% threshold needed for a majority bonus under the newly approved electoral law. Recent surveys show Fratelli d’Italia holding around 27-28% while the broader center-right bloc edges ahead of fragmented opposition forces, bolstered by Meloni’s personal preference ratings in head-to-head matchups. Opposition disunity between Elly Schlein’s PD and Giuseppe Conte’s M5S has limited their ability to consolidate support behind a single candidate, keeping their implied probabilities lower. Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale has gained traction on the right but shows signs of stalling, capping his market share. Discussions around possible spring 2027 elections or completing the full term add timeline uncertainty without shifting the current consensus.