Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader, leads market pricing for Victoria’s next premier ahead of the November 28 state election, reflecting consistent Coalition polling advantages on two-party preferred measures and her personal preference ratings over Labor’s Ben Carroll. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid poor polling, yet Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s while the Coalition holds a narrow lead despite One Nation fragmenting the conservative vote. Wilson has consolidated party support, released cost-of-living and justice policies, and benefited from rebranding efforts that highlight her profile, positioning the Liberals for a potential majority or minority government. Lower odds for Carroll, Warren Pickering, and other figures align with the Coalition’s structural edge and the limited time remaining for Labor to close the gap.