Jess Wilson, Liberal leader since late 2025, leads the market at 64 percent due to sustained Coalition polling advantages ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent surveys, including DemosAU and Resolve data, show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred and Wilson preferred as premier over Labor’s Ben Carroll, who assumed the role in July after Jacinta Allan’s resignation. Labor’s primary vote remains in the mid-20s despite the leadership shift, while One Nation’s Warren Pickering draws support that fragments the vote but has not altered the Coalition’s projected path. Wilson’s policy focus on bail reform, justice, housing supply, and cost-of-living measures has reinforced trader consensus on her position as the frontrunner for formal appointment as premier.