Jess Wilson, Liberal leader since November 2025, leads trader pricing for next Victorian premier ahead of the November 28, 2026 election because consistent Coalition polling leads have held after Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. Recent Resolve and Redbridge surveys show the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred terms around 55-45 to 56-44, with Wilson rated preferred premier over Carroll by double-digit margins and maintaining stronger personal favorability. Carroll’s ratings have declined further amid primary votes stuck in the mid-20s. Wilson has released targeted policies on justice, housing, health waitlists, and a first-100-days agenda, while both major parties campaign on cost-of-living and regional issues. One Nation’s primary support near 22-24 percent fragments the vote but has not altered the Coalition’s projected path in most models. These dynamics keep Wilson’s implied probability well ahead of Carroll and lower-ranked figures.