Petr Hlaváček of the STAN movement holds a commanding lead in the Prague mayoral market following STAN’s narrow victory in the October 2026 municipal elections, securing roughly 23 percent of the vote and 17 council seats. This outcome positions STAN to lead coalition talks, with Hlaváček explicitly acknowledged by rivals including Tomáš Portlík of SPOLU as entitled to nominate the mayor. Hlaváček has ruled out cooperation with ANO and plans to finalize an agreement by November, likely involving SPOLU, Praha sobě, or the Pirates. The high implied probability reflects STAN’s electoral edge and the standard practice of awarding the mayoral post to the leading party in Prague’s proportional system. A collapse in negotiations or unexpected coalition realignment could still alter the result before the council vote.