Netanyahu’s recent statements that the National Security Ministry will remain under Likud control after the October 27 election have heightened coalition tensions with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party, which accuses the prime minister of planning to sideline it in favor of other partners. Ben-Gvir, the current minister, has demanded the Defense portfolio instead and proposed party colleague Yitzhak Wasserlauf as his successor, while Netanyahu has explicitly ruled out Ben-Gvir for both defense and national security roles. This pre-election positioning, combined with uncertainty over final coalition arithmetic and the February 28 resolution deadline, keeps implied probabilities closely matched among several Likud-aligned or security-experienced figures. Trader consensus reflects the fluid nature of post-election negotiations and the structural barriers to any single candidate securing the role quickly.