Upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, 2026, and subsequent coalition talks drive uncertainty over the Justice Ministry portfolio. Prime Minister Netanyahu has signaled that the role will remain with Likud rather than coalition partners, countering Otzma Yehudit demands for Tally Gotliv while positioning figures such as current minister Yariv Levin and other party members as contenders. Religious Zionism and additional factions have advanced names including Simcha Rothman, contributing to fragmented positioning. The 35.5% probability assigned to no appointment by February 28 reflects potential delays in government formation. With multiple viable candidates and shifting alliances, trader consensus shows no dominant frontrunner, as coalition arithmetic and internal party dynamics could still alter outcomes before resolution.