The outcome of Israel's October 27 Knesset election and subsequent coalition negotiations remain the dominant factors shaping trader sentiment on the next defense minister. Netanyahu has repeatedly pledged to keep the portfolio in Likud hands while explicitly ruling out Itamar Ben-Gvir, prompting accusations from Otzma Yehudit of plans to sideline the party in favor of Gadi Eisenkot or other partners. This has elevated speculation around right-leaning outsiders such as Ofer Winter, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and former IDF chief Eisenkot, each tied to distinct security approaches on Iran, Gaza operations, and force structure. Current Defense Minister Israel Katz and other listed contenders sit in a fragmented field, with the "no appointment by late February" option reflecting uncertainty over post-election timelines. Security meetings addressing Tehran's nuclear activities and election security add context but have not clarified frontrunners.