Persistent deadlock within the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board over a successor to Christian Schmidt, who resigned effective July 1, 2026, underpins the elevated 65.5% probability assigned to no High Representative in 2026. Louis J. Crishock serves as acting High Representative amid missed deadlines, including the July 14 target, while U.S.-EU divisions over the office’s mandate and preferred candidate—such as U.S. backing for Antonio Zanardi Landi versus European support for René Troccaz—remain unresolved. Other named diplomats including Maurizio Massari and Peter Sørensen reflect limited consensus, and William Ruger’s positioning aligns with reported U.S. preferences. Recent October 2026 elections and ongoing debates about the Office of the High Representative’s future reinforce uncertainty about any permanent appointment before year-end.